As all my exes have said “sometimes it’s time to move on”, and after 20 years together it’s the first time Tom Brady will have that chance as he hits Free Agency.  Just today on Brady’s instagram he wrote he still “has more to prove”. Is it with New England or somewhere else? As much as I like to be the naysayer, there are very few teams that would make sense to bring in a QB in his 40s. Unless it’s completely to drive ticket sales, like the 2 teams opening stadiums in new cities, the Chargers and Raiders.

Realistically I give Brady about an 80% of returning, unless Belichick decides he’s completely done with him. So for this  article lets talk about the % chance of each QB being the starting QB for the Patriots IF Brady decides to leave. I could include Brady, but I’d just be dividing out the other 20%… So I took him off the table.

Believe it or not, this added up to 100% no my first try…

Here are the free agents that have a history of starting

  • Tom Brady *** Take out of the discussion for conversation sake***
  • Marcus Mariota 15% – With the likelihood that Tannehill  returns to TEN, Mariota will be a free agent. Although he has underwhelmed, Belichick has always said good things about him including he’s a “smart player that makes good decisions”. Sounds like the exact type of player he would want.
  • Teddy Bridgewater 10% – Teddy took less with NO to play for a good team. Why not go from a backup with a great team to starter for a historic team? If nothing else, he can be a safe game manager.
  • Phillip Rivers 5% – LA is the place Brady is most rumored to go to, leaving Rivers free. A great QB leaving, an aging roster, why not bring in a QB with plenty of experience that doesn’t need a steep learning curve. But would he be able to win the big game?
  • Blake Bortles 5% but this is fake 5% – Because even if he’s on the roster, I could see it as a veteran backup.
  • Ryan Tannehill 5%. – I think he returns to TEN but if not, you know how Bill loves the converted WRs and vice-versa.
  • Taysom Hill 3% – I imagine the Saints will resign him, but Bill would have a literal field day with him.
  • Drew Brees 2% – It’d be really fun to see Brees and Brady switch teams, and still be under HOF coaches, but I can’t imagine that Brees leaves NO.
  • Case Keenum 2% – IF they needed a vet to hold the fort until a rookie or Stidham comes along, maybe Keenum would get a shot.
  • Dak Prescott >1% – Come on… Jerry is signing him.
  •  Jameis Winston >1% – As much fun as he would be, there is no chance Bill brings in a QB who threw 30 picks.
  • Eli Manning 0% – GTFOH

Trade Options

  • Jacoby Brissett. 15% – HE’S BACK! Ok obviously he’s the starter for the Colts right now. But some mock drafts (USA TODAY) have the Colts taking Jordan Love. Maybe they would move him for an asset.
  • Nick Foles 8% – It seems likely the Jags will go with Minshew. Does Foles get a starting job? Was Bill impressed how Foles led the Eagles to SB victory?
  • Baker Mayfield 7% – OK. The Pats were interested in him but obviously he went 1st. But in this Brady leaving scenario, there is this little rumor that Josh and Brady go to CLE together. I doubt it, but if that’s the case, Baker would become the Browns backup.
  • Tyrod Taylor 1% – Bill has seen a lot of tape on Taylor. But I don’t think he’s overly impressed.

Roster Cut Potential – Guys that seem likely to be cut by their teams.

  • Andy Dalton 11% – Dalton is the most wild-card of the free agent QBs. There is a tier of very good options, a tier of guys that probably won’t get starting gigs, and Dalton is right in the middle.  He’s perfect to lead a team to the middle ground.
  • Joe Flacco 5% – Bill likes the veterans but I don’t think he likes how one-note Flacco’s play style is.

On Roster  (I didn’t include him in my % when I added up to 100% since he’s already on the roster)

  • Jarrett Stidham 25% – Don’t’ get me wrong, he’s 100% on the roster next season. But based on his good preseason last year, there’s a 25% chance he’s starting next season if Brady leaves. I could think of another impressive 1st year player that took over after a year under-studying…


  • Jake Fromm 4% – Fromm’s stock has dropped greatly, but in order to get him in the draft, Bill would need to trade up to the 2nd… or trade down. Hmmm. But Bill has a history of taking guys who’s stock dropped the year before the draft. Value picks.
Tags : footballnflpatriotsTom Brady
Michael Lavery

The author Michael Lavery

Mike has been a sports writer all across the world (wide web). Now he's a podcasters and his old pug has his own fantasy team.